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The U.S. stock market is off to a roaring start in 2024. We are not even half way through the year yet, and the S&P 500 Index is higher by more than +15%. Sounds fantastic, right? It is definitely great news on a headline basis, but unfortunately all is not necessarily well with the broader stock market. A closer look underneath the surface reveals that the market is not nearly as healthy as the headline return might imply.

That was fast.  It was just one week ago that this Chief Market Strategist was putting pen to paper to raise early warning signals about potential signs of economic slowing amid an environment where inflationary pressures were bubbling underneath the surface.

So much feels great about capital markets as summertime temperatures heat up. But the U.S. economy is offering up a soft and cool economic twist with the start of the beach season. As fireworks like NVIDIA continue its march past $3 trillion toward becoming the largest company in the world by market cap and GameStop is suddenly back to posting daily stock price doubles, it’s important to also keep an eye on the daily economic waves rolling in throughout the summer.

The summer season is now officially underway. And despite robust gains already this year, capital markets are primed and ready for a hot stock summer.

It seems like a frivolous stock market novelty. Companies like GameStop and AMC Entertainment with their relatively small market caps and even more meager sales in the context of the overall marketplace suddenly found themselves returning to the financial news spotlight.

It has been a primary downside risk for financial markets for more than a year now. But after repeatedly coming in hotter than expected in many reports so far in 2024, the latest reading on inflation surprised the markets by coming in cooler than expected on Wednesday.

The U.S. stock market got off to a bumpy start in 2024 Q2. No sooner did the calendar flip to April and the S&P 500 descended into a pullback. Over the course of the first fifteen trading days of the new quarter, the S&P 500 retreated by nearly -6%. Knowing that stock market corrections within a broader uptrend last anywhere … Read More

A passing glance at the U.S. market might make an investor think that it’s all about technology stocks all of the time.  But the S&P 500 Index is made up of eleven sectors, all with their unique and individual forces driving their returns.

The bond market sustained its latest broadside from the U.S. hot economic data warship on Thursday. Not only did the advance reading for 2024 Q1 U.S. GDP come in weaker than expected, but inflation readings also came in hotter than expected.

The long overdue correction has finally arrived. No sooner did the market peak at 5264 on the last trading day of March than the calendar flipped to the start of the second quarter and the market has been moving sustainably to the downside. Now that the correction is underway, how low can we reasonably expect the market to go? Why … Read More