Economic & Market Report: Some Like It Hot

The latest jobs report for the month of January came in “hot”. The latest reading on CPI inflation to start the New Year was “hot”. While most of us are all for some unexpected heat during the frigid winter months, these hot readings on the U.S. economy have upset the thesis for many investors banking their portfolio strategies on a steady wave of interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2024. But maybe these recently hot economic readings are signaling an outcome even better for investors in the year ahead.

Economic & Market Report: Déjà Vu?

It was nearly a year ago when global capital markets came under sudden and intense pressure. Over the course of hours in March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank evaporated into insolvency. In the subsequent days, New York based Signature Bank and Swiss banking giant Credit Suisse followed into the abyss, and global investors found themselves having Great Financial Crisis flashbacks as they spent two consecutive weekends waiting with bated breath for a government resolution to prevent another major banking contagion. So as financial headlines start to gather around New York Community Bank (NYCB), it is reasonable to wonder whether we are going to see déjà vu all over again in early 2024.

Economic & Market Report: Pain Points

The New Year is off to a rousing start for the U.S. stock market. With the recent stock bear market now definitively behind us and a new all-time high on the S&P 500 now in the books, it is reasonable to consider what are the most likely pain points that could dash the optimism for the U.S. stock market as we continue our way through 2024.

Economic & Market Report: Dissecting the Fed Rate Cut Case

Investors are all a flutter over the idea that the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to aggressively cut interest rates in 2024. It was a primary narrative behind why both the stock and bond market rallied so strongly in November and December of last year. And the debate about how many rate cuts and when ranks at the top of the list of discussion topics in the financial news media today.

Economic & Market Report: Managing Expectations

It has been a sputtering start for capital markets thus far in 2024. The performance of the headline benchmark S&P 500 has been bumpy at best in moving between marginal gains and losses so far in January.

Economic & Market Report: Winners & Contrarians

A fresh new calendar year is underway for capital markets, so much focus is on what we can reasonably expect in the year ahead. But given that capital market movements flow across the beginnings and ends of our calendar pages, it is worthwhile to consider as investors get back up to speed from the holiday season what segments of the markets have been winning thus far, and what areas of the market may have been left behind and offering potential opportunity depending on how events unfold in the weeks ahead.

Economic & Market Report: ‘Tis the Season

The age-old stock market adage has rang so true over the past year.  The notion of “sell in May and go away” is based on the historical trend of relative underperformance by stocks during the period from May 1 to October 31.  Of course, the flip side of this adage is the historical trend of relative stock outperformance during the period from November 1 to April 30.

Economic & Market Report: All Things Mid & Small

It has been a November to remember. Following a three-month slide from August to October that saw U.S. stocks decline by more than -10% and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield jump by more than a percentage point (ouch and ouch), capital markets roared back to life this month.

Economic & Market Report: World Make Way

For more than a decade, the U.S. stock market has been the place to be for global equity investors. But as we continue to emerge from the inflationary induced bear market over the last two years, developed international and emerging markets may be worth a closer look.

Economic & Market Report: Savoring the Feast

Capital markets have had a remarkable run in recent weeks. After bottoming at the end of October, the S&P 500 Index has soared roughly +10%. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield has also plunged by more than a half percentage point since recently peaking at 5.00%, driving a comparable nearly +10% bounce in long-term U.S. Treasuries. Given these head turning gains for both stocks and bonds over such a short-term period of time, it is reasonable to consider what we should reasonably expect from here between now and when many across America are carving turkey for their Thanksgiving Day feasts.